Wednesday, September 29, 2010

ESPN's John Clayton: "For those judging QB development, Mark Sanchez has a slight lead over Chad Henne."

ESPN's John Clayton
ESPN's John Clayton has been an NFL analyst for quite a while. He's old. Nerdy looking. He wears glasses. Honestly, he looks more like a tax lawyer than an NFL analyst. In this week's NFL Power Rankings, he made a comment on why the Jets are ranked ahead of the Dolphins. The reason? He claims Mark Sanchez is ahead of Chad Henne in terms of quarterback development.

I'm confused. I consider myself an avid football fan. I played the sport, albeit in high school and I never really had a shot in hell of advancing to the next level (although if you would have asked me when I was 15 years old, I was ready for the NFL). After I realized I had no future as a player, I decided to coach football. None of this makes me an expert, and I am in no way trying to say that I know more than John Clayton, but I am having trouble with the fact that he can so nonchalantly say that Mark Sanchez is ahead of Chad Henne.

Let's look at the numbers before I start going over personnel. Last year, Mark Sanchez had a whopping QB rating of 63.0. He threw 12 touchdowns compared with 20 interceptions. Yards? 2,444. Completion percentage? Are you on the edge of your seat? 53.8%. I did an entire post on how Chad Henne just played his 16th game last week, the equivalent of a full NFL season. In that post I went over Henne's numbers, and although the numbers are not Pro Bowl level, they are better than Mark Sanchez's numbers. Over 16 games Chad Henne threw 15 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, passed for over 3,500 yards, and his completion percentage was almost 10 percentage points higher than Sanchez's. What does this show? Simple. Chad Henne over a full NFL season is the more efficient quarterback. Less interceptions and completes the ball more often.

Then again, the media may have something to do with ESPN's enamoration with Mark Sanchez. Sanchez is the one posing for GQ Magazine. Sanchez was also a big part of the Ines Sainz scandal up in New York a few weeks ago when the Mexican reporter was attempting to interview him in the Jets locker room (for more details see my prior post on Ines Sainz). Sanchez was a higher pick, going 9th overall out of USC. It's not like he plays for the Cleveland Browns either, he's on the New York Jets who were just featured on HBO's Hardknocks, a show that goes behind the scenes of an NFL team during the offseason. They have a loud mouth coach in Rex Ryan who is in the spotlight every other week for some absurd reason. Mark Sanchez plays in New York City, the largest sports market in the United States of America, if not in the entire world. Of course Mark Sanchez is going to garner more of the media spotlight in comparison to country boy Chad Henne. You also need to consider that the Miami Dolphins are not exactly known for being media friendly ever since Bill Parcells rode into town. But when we look at the numbers, Henne has outperformed him over the course of a full NFL season.

The next Broadway Joe?


Let's look at head to head matchups:

November 1st, 2009: Miami Dolphins 30-New York Jets 25.

Mark Sanchez- 20-35, 265 yards, 2 touchdowns, QB rating 100.3
Chad Henne- 12-21, 112 yards, 1 touchdown, QB rating 87.8

October 12, 2009: Miami Dolphins 31-New York Jets 27

Mark Sanchez- 12-24, 172 yards, 1 touchdown, QB rating 87.5
Chad Henne- 20-26, 241 yards, 2 touchdowns, QB rating 130.4

September 26, 2010: New York Jets 31-Miami Dolphins 23

Mark Sanchez- 15-28, 256 yards, 3 touchdowns, QB rating 120.5
Chad Henne- 26-44, 363 yards, 2 touchdowns, QB rating 91.4

In three head to head matchups, Chad Henne has won two out of three games. Look at the numbers and you'll see both quarterbacks have played fairy well against each other, however it looks like Chad Henne might have a slighter edge in the last two games they played. Henne came out on the losing end last Sunday, but anyone watching the game would tell you Henne was the better quarterback. Mark Sanchez was the beneficiary of a few botched plays by Jason Allen and a few dropped interceptions. Henne was shredding apart what has been called the NFL's best defense by many of the so called experts.

Next, let's take a look at the personnel on both teams dating back to last season and the beginning of this one. Mark Sanchez had a better supporting cast last year. Not only does he have what many believe to be the best offensive line in the league, he also benefits from something that Henne doesn't have--an athletic tight end in Dustin Keller that creates mismatches against opposing defenses. That was highlighted against the Dolphins last week as the Jets proved yet again that the middle of the field is the Achilles heel of the Dolphins' defense. Also, Jerricho Cotchery was a better receiver than anything the Miami Dolphins had on their roster last season. Throw in the Braylon Edwards trade towards the end of the season and it is clear the Jets had a better receiving corp then the Dolphins did at any point last year. The same can't be said this season, as Brandon Marshall is clearly the best receiver if not player on any of the Dolphins' or Jets' rosters. Sanchez also had the league's best rushing attack last season. While the Dolphins didn't have a shabby running game, Ronnie Brown was injured and we relied on Ricky Williams most of the second half. Although he filled in admirably and rushed for over 1,000 yards, the element of the wildcat was gone.

It is easy to see these two quarterbacks have a bright future ahead of them. To say Mark Sanchez is slightly ahead of Henne is not a fair statement though. If anything, I believe Chad Henne is ahead at this point in their careers.
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28 comments:

  1. I love the Miami Dolphins to death and hate the Jets just as much as I love the Dolphins, but I might have to disagree with you. For the future, I still see more in Chad Henne than I do Mark Sanchez, but I see more poise with Sanchez now than I do Henne. It seems like a cliche comment, but I still haven't seen Henne just take a moment and grab it by the throat. I want to see like last Sunday Henne to come up with a TD in the last possession to potentially tie it. I still haven't seen that while it's an subject many people bring up, but Sanchez against the Chargers last year proved how calm and collected he was in a pressure situation. Even in the first half of the Colts game in the playoffs, he was playing like a stud. I still haven't seen Henne just take over a game to win it. Not to say he can't, but I want to see him actually doing it before I put Henne over Sanchez at the moment.

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  2. Not fair to say that. Henne hasn't been given the opportunity. Last week against the Jets he could have brought the team back (read my blog about it), but the play calling down in the red zone was horrendous and he didn't have much help.

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  3. I disagree with GinoM1121. Not sure when Sanchez showed his remarkable calm and poise (Chargers lost because of missed field goals, so did Bengals). Sanchez didn't win any of those games with his cool demeanor from So. Cal. And if you did not see Henne lead drives last year under pressure, I do not know if you've been watching the games closely. Last, but not least, Henne is 2-1 against the best defense in the NFL and he has picked them apart, not just lollygagged around the field and hoped he would win. Remember, the Jets blitz and intimidate... Henne was calm and collected in those three games. Not sure if you have espn coverage on it, but Merril Hodge blamed Fasano for not running a good route on that last play of the game. Had nothing to do with poise. If anything, Henne is complimented for being poised and making few mistakes.

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  4. It's true, Henne has played his best games against the best defense in the NFL. I wish he would play like that every game.

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  5. Last year, every game we won wasn't because Henne was the MVP of the game. It was either Ronnie and RW34 had their A game and dominated the run game. Henne had his chances. Against the Titans, he led a nice comeback only to be picked off in overtime and Titans kicked a FG. Against Texans, another nice comeback and again for naught. Last Sunday against the Jets, didn't come out with the W. And the games he won with Panthers, Jags, and Bucs... dominated by Ricky Williams. The only game I can give you is the Pats last year, but he was hardly efficient that game throwing close to 50% completion rate. C'mon I'm not saying he sucks, but take bias away and you have to say Sanchez has done more than Henne. I would like to clarify I would prefer Henne over Sanchez for future, but truth of the matter is Sanchez has played better and has come up in big games when needed. In the playoffs he made plays when he needed. He might have not had the gaudy stats, but when they needed the killer instinct to win the game, he did. Henne still hasn't shown me a killer instinct

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  6. You only say that because the Jets were in the playoffs last year and got hot at the right time. ESPN gave Sanchez credit, so naturally most fans want to give him credit. The only reason the Jets played well at the end of the year is because of their strong running game and their defense. All Mark Sanchez had to do was take care of the ball. Show me one game where he was the sole reason they won.

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  7. Just checked the stats. Sanchez didn't throw over 300 yards once. He didn't throw the ball more than 30 times in any of his playoff games. Hence, he was not asked to win games for the Jets.

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  8. He threw the game winning TD against the Chargers in the playoffs to put the nail in the coffin. I cannot say the same for Henne in any game he has played. I haven't seen Henne make THE play when we most needed. You tell me he scores last Sunday then I'd tell you I'd put Henne slightly over Sanchez. But he didn't. And don't tell me Fasano ran a bad route b/c he had 4 chances to put it in. He's made valiant efforts in comebacks but just never comes away with the W where I say wow Henne came through for us.

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  9. GinoM1121, he had four chances from inside the 10, with his best receiver wiped out of the plays. Red zone scoring is difficult when you are playing 5 wide, limited spacing. But since you think Mark Sanchez is the Holy Ghost, please explain how a guy that was probably the sole reason you were 9-7 and barely made the playoffs (Colts took their players out to help little sanchy), suddenly has a killer instinct? Who has he killed? What comebacks has he led? Look at his stats from the Chargers game... and remind me where he displayed the killer instinct... up 17-7, the Jets luckily had the Chargers miss a FG and then the Chargers score a TD, all with 4:30 seconds left in the game. http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010011701/2009/POST19/jets@chargers. http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010010901/2009/POST18/jets@bengals.
    http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010012400/2009/POST20/jets@colts. Man, Sanchy really came up BIG in the second half against the Colts! Killer!

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  10. Also, which one of those situations was a comeback attempt? Oh, the Colts game. Oh! You mean the game where Shonne Greene didn't rush for 130+ yards? Oh!

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  11. Again, Sanchez benefits from a good defense, good running game.

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  12. And what the Dolphins don't have a good running game. There not ONE game that the Dolphins run game was stopped that Henne won. Btw Jorge, there was only one team that really came through against the Colts and he is the Super Bowl champ. Sanchez gave them a chance to win, but Manning carved him up. I'm sorry guys, if you think Henne has accomplished more than Sanchez, you're wrong. You're bias is just coming out of it from being Dolphins fans. I hate Mark Sanchez and the Jets, but the truth is the truth.

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  13. Statistically, Henne has been better. I just think Henne hasn't come out in big moments and Sanchez has. He won 2 playoffs games in the ROAD which cannot be ignored. You cannot say he had nothing to do with it when he had a passing rating of 137.4 in the Bengals game and the game winning TD at the Chargers.

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  14. GinoM1121, you are, unfortunately missing the point of the article and my follow-up comments. You are referring to non-existent attributes to bolster your comments: 1) calm and poise; and 2) killer instinct. Further, you are attributing team success to Sanchez, which is patently unfair. Henne inherited an 0-2 or 0-3 team, if I am not mistaken. Head to head, Henne is 2-1 vs. Sanchy. And Sanchez's 137.4 rating is cute as a button, but he attempted 15, 15, 15 passes (emphasis intended). You are also conjuring up misleading images of a game winning TD (10-7 lead, he threw a td to make it 17-7). Sanchez had mediocre stats against the Chargers, hence you did not reference his statistics.
    Finally, last, but not least, as JC has mentioned, Sanchez had the #1 defense, was a caretaker, not a playmaker, and yet you have repeated that somehow he, individually, has accomplished more because his team advanced in the playoffs. That is like suggesting Trent Dilfer accomplished more than Marino.

    PS: Henne and the Fins beat the Jets in the Meadowlands... the running game sucked that day
    (and that is off the top of my head).

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  15. And one last parting thought: The #1 defense in the NFL and a top 5 running game somehow mustered up a 9-7 record, advanced two rounds because of missed field goals and scores zero points in the second half against Indy. I wonder who the liability of that team was. What player handicapped that roster? Good, old, calm and poised Marky Mark. Yet, somehow, ignoring his underwhelming (being nice) statistics ignoring that it is much easier to play as a caretaker with a lead than from behind, he is calm, poised and shown he is a better QB than a guy who has had a different interior line seemingly every five minutes, had zero receivers of merit last year, and was given an 0-2 or 0-3 record despite better statistics and a better record against this glorious qb.

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  16. Ummm Ted Ginn won that game in the Meadowlands with 2 TD not too mention a JT fumble return. Yes he has been a caretaker for the most part. But so has Henne. But the difference I see is that Sanchez has won games for the Jets (in case the past 2 games), while Henne's game that he has good statistics has been games that we've lost. You mean to tell me Sanchez did not win the last 2 games for the Jets? Has Henne had a game you said, wow he won that game for us?

    And whether you like it or not, those attributes aren't non-existent. You just said that to bolster your argument. How bout the fact Sanchez is more mobile or the fact Henne takes more sacks than Sanchez by holding on to the ball? If you wanna get technical with head to head... Ryan Fitzpatrick has a 1-0 record vs. Henne. You what that means... NOTHING.

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  17. Sanchez has lost more games for the Jets than he has won. If the Jets had a better quarterback last year, they would have been much better than 9-7. He held them back. He has had two "good" games this past two weeks against a crappy New England defense and against the Dolphins where he picked on Jason Allen. Sanchez is no where near worth the amount of hype he gets. You are giving way too much weight to words that are pretty much of little value. Words like "calm" and "poised" that are so often thrown around by analysts just so they sound smarter. As someone who listens to the Le Batard show you should know by now how little these words mean.

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  18. Look at the statistics Gino. Numbers don't lie.

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  19. BTW, the stat you provided for the QB rating, ummm that means NOTHING when you attempt only 15 passes. That is DIRECT evidence that you were not a significant part of the victory.

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  20. Gino's way of thinking is the same thought process that drives me nuts about how Joe Namath is remembered. He guaranteed a win in the Super Bowl and therefore is regarded as a great player. His numbers are not impressive AT ALL. I guess that's what happens when you play in New York. It's just like Derek Jeter. He is regarded to be much better than he is because he's a Yankee. Players like Hanley Ramirez will never garner national attention just because he plays for the Florida Marlins.

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  21. Congratulations this is the first post over 20 comments lol.

    Whatever I mean numbers don't lie but they also can be askewed a bit. I mean why do you think you see Shaun Hill of the Lions throw for over 300 yards. Not because he's so good but bc he's had to throw the whole game since they've been down. Henne's best numbers have come on games that the Dolphins have been down. I think we're gonna keep on agreeing to disagree. Bring on the next post lol.

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  22. Hey Gino, just because the QB doesn't throw a TD in the final seconds does not mean he didn't show calm, poise, and a killer instinct. Oct 12, 2009, Henne led a comeback versus Mark Sanchez and the Jets. Gaudy statistics too. 20/26, 242 yds, 2 tds. I guess he did not demonstrate the ability to win because it benefits your argument.

    http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2009101200/2009/REG5/jets@dolphins. Good stats, come from behind drive, against the #1 defense. I guess you only remember what the NY Jets/Espn media tells you.
    I could sit here all day and continue to share adjectives as the reason certain players are better than others. That guy is a real workhorse, a hard worker, so calm under pressure, an efficient guy. But you have yet to give an explanation. This is your summarized explanation: despite his crappy stats from last year, the dude has a killer instinct. Please do not make arguments like this unless you are willing to support it with facts and logic.
    And yardage is a skewed statistic, kind of like RBI's in baseball. But completion percentage, qb rating and td:int ratio aren't manipulated. If they are both caretakers, then based on that assessment, you just admitted Henne has proven to be a better caretaker. Individually, that means he has been a better Qb.

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  23. Killer instinct ---> took the lead against Chargers from 3 to 10 in the waning minutes. Against the Patriots last week, took the lead the 14 in the 4th to put it out of reach. Tell me when Henne has put a game out of reach like that.

    Calm --> how about this last Sunday when he led TD drives when the crowd was going bananas after we took the lead and again after we cut the lead down to one. Not to mention in the ROAD. Which Henne has done crap in road games, which if you cannot attest to that, then your just a homer.

    I have my own opinion. I don't need ESPN to skew my opinion on the subject. Just because I have a different opinion than yours doesn't make your opinion the right one and the "unaltered" by media apparently. You just like to blast people for having a different opinion and just blame it on media, bc you obviously cannot be wrong. And my point about Henne is that he hasn't scored a game winning TD. He always gets close but depends on others to get it in for him. Did he get them to the 3 yard line yes. And your supposed to run it there, but that changed when he couldn't get it in this weekend from a similar distance.

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  24. Go look at TB game, Pats game and Jets game from last year. He orchestrated comebacks in all three games in the final minutes of the 4th Quarter. Against TB he demonstrated the "calm" after adversity (he threw an INT).

    Against the Jets he completed a 4th down conversion to Greg Camarillo on a rollout bootleg.

    Last, but not least, my frustration with you is not on your opinion. It is that you have resorted to intangibles that have appeared perhaps twice to utterly disregard all objective measures known to man. Further, your intangibles are also team oriented as you have pointed to playoff success while simultaneously ignoring the #1 defense and stout running game of the Jets (fins were 27th defensively). I refuse to admit someone is better than another player based on intangibles you've created for this player. By eliminating subjective criteria, I actually think I have made a less biased argument. And I am the guy that has posted that I think our offense sucks and I am not convinced this team is above .500 quality talent.

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  25. I forgot to mention I am also frustrated with your argument because you have decided to disregard the point and logic of JC's article and our comments. JC argued that John Clayton was incorrect to summarily hand the lead to Mark Sanchez based on two weeks of performance (ignoring the Ravens game). It was foolish to disregard Sanchez's horrendous rookie season. And JC also said that, if anything, they are even.

    I object to your reasoning, not your conclusion. I could care less who agrees or disagrees with me, especially someone I do not even know. And what really irked me enough to sully your opinion by asserting it was an ESPN diluted opinion is that you immediately went with the bias argument and from the very beginning tried to disregard our arguments by suggesting bias. Once again, I I have been attacking your logic.

    "I'm sorry guys, if you think Henne has accomplished more than Sanchez, you're wrong. You're bias is just coming out of it from being Dolphins fans." -- Gino
    I guess more than one person needs to be the right one here.

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  26. Last week... Edwards scored after 17-14 lead when Allen fell. Not a miracle drive. The Jets also scored a fg after a punt block. Not a miracle drive. And the last score... running plays throughout, one standout third down conversion picking on the aforementioned Jason Allen. And a crappy penalty assisted your hero later on that drive. And, I guess, according to you, he doesn't get credit for that drive because he needed LT to score for him (look no further than your previous posts discrediting Henne because Ronnie Brown scored on other plays and Henne failed to score this time).

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  27. For you, JC: http://deadspin.com/5452869/mark-sanchez-is-the-new-jamarcus-russell-only-worse

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  28. More: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Players-think-Terrell-Owens-is-the-most-overrate?urn=nfl-278583

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