Wednesday, September 29, 2010

ESPN's John Clayton: "For those judging QB development, Mark Sanchez has a slight lead over Chad Henne."

ESPN's John Clayton
ESPN's John Clayton has been an NFL analyst for quite a while. He's old. Nerdy looking. He wears glasses. Honestly, he looks more like a tax lawyer than an NFL analyst. In this week's NFL Power Rankings, he made a comment on why the Jets are ranked ahead of the Dolphins. The reason? He claims Mark Sanchez is ahead of Chad Henne in terms of quarterback development.

I'm confused. I consider myself an avid football fan. I played the sport, albeit in high school and I never really had a shot in hell of advancing to the next level (although if you would have asked me when I was 15 years old, I was ready for the NFL). After I realized I had no future as a player, I decided to coach football. None of this makes me an expert, and I am in no way trying to say that I know more than John Clayton, but I am having trouble with the fact that he can so nonchalantly say that Mark Sanchez is ahead of Chad Henne.

Let's look at the numbers before I start going over personnel. Last year, Mark Sanchez had a whopping QB rating of 63.0. He threw 12 touchdowns compared with 20 interceptions. Yards? 2,444. Completion percentage? Are you on the edge of your seat? 53.8%. I did an entire post on how Chad Henne just played his 16th game last week, the equivalent of a full NFL season. In that post I went over Henne's numbers, and although the numbers are not Pro Bowl level, they are better than Mark Sanchez's numbers. Over 16 games Chad Henne threw 15 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, passed for over 3,500 yards, and his completion percentage was almost 10 percentage points higher than Sanchez's. What does this show? Simple. Chad Henne over a full NFL season is the more efficient quarterback. Less interceptions and completes the ball more often.

Then again, the media may have something to do with ESPN's enamoration with Mark Sanchez. Sanchez is the one posing for GQ Magazine. Sanchez was also a big part of the Ines Sainz scandal up in New York a few weeks ago when the Mexican reporter was attempting to interview him in the Jets locker room (for more details see my prior post on Ines Sainz). Sanchez was a higher pick, going 9th overall out of USC. It's not like he plays for the Cleveland Browns either, he's on the New York Jets who were just featured on HBO's Hardknocks, a show that goes behind the scenes of an NFL team during the offseason. They have a loud mouth coach in Rex Ryan who is in the spotlight every other week for some absurd reason. Mark Sanchez plays in New York City, the largest sports market in the United States of America, if not in the entire world. Of course Mark Sanchez is going to garner more of the media spotlight in comparison to country boy Chad Henne. You also need to consider that the Miami Dolphins are not exactly known for being media friendly ever since Bill Parcells rode into town. But when we look at the numbers, Henne has outperformed him over the course of a full NFL season.

The next Broadway Joe?


Let's look at head to head matchups:

November 1st, 2009: Miami Dolphins 30-New York Jets 25.

Mark Sanchez- 20-35, 265 yards, 2 touchdowns, QB rating 100.3
Chad Henne- 12-21, 112 yards, 1 touchdown, QB rating 87.8

October 12, 2009: Miami Dolphins 31-New York Jets 27

Mark Sanchez- 12-24, 172 yards, 1 touchdown, QB rating 87.5
Chad Henne- 20-26, 241 yards, 2 touchdowns, QB rating 130.4

September 26, 2010: New York Jets 31-Miami Dolphins 23

Mark Sanchez- 15-28, 256 yards, 3 touchdowns, QB rating 120.5
Chad Henne- 26-44, 363 yards, 2 touchdowns, QB rating 91.4

In three head to head matchups, Chad Henne has won two out of three games. Look at the numbers and you'll see both quarterbacks have played fairy well against each other, however it looks like Chad Henne might have a slighter edge in the last two games they played. Henne came out on the losing end last Sunday, but anyone watching the game would tell you Henne was the better quarterback. Mark Sanchez was the beneficiary of a few botched plays by Jason Allen and a few dropped interceptions. Henne was shredding apart what has been called the NFL's best defense by many of the so called experts.

Next, let's take a look at the personnel on both teams dating back to last season and the beginning of this one. Mark Sanchez had a better supporting cast last year. Not only does he have what many believe to be the best offensive line in the league, he also benefits from something that Henne doesn't have--an athletic tight end in Dustin Keller that creates mismatches against opposing defenses. That was highlighted against the Dolphins last week as the Jets proved yet again that the middle of the field is the Achilles heel of the Dolphins' defense. Also, Jerricho Cotchery was a better receiver than anything the Miami Dolphins had on their roster last season. Throw in the Braylon Edwards trade towards the end of the season and it is clear the Jets had a better receiving corp then the Dolphins did at any point last year. The same can't be said this season, as Brandon Marshall is clearly the best receiver if not player on any of the Dolphins' or Jets' rosters. Sanchez also had the league's best rushing attack last season. While the Dolphins didn't have a shabby running game, Ronnie Brown was injured and we relied on Ricky Williams most of the second half. Although he filled in admirably and rushed for over 1,000 yards, the element of the wildcat was gone.

It is easy to see these two quarterbacks have a bright future ahead of them. To say Mark Sanchez is slightly ahead of Henne is not a fair statement though. If anything, I believe Chad Henne is ahead at this point in their careers.
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